11. Fair Value Measurements

Fair value measurements discussed herein are based upon certain market assumptions and pertinent information available to management as of and during the nine months ended September 30, 2022 and the year ended December 31, 2021. The carrying amount of accounts payable approximated fair value as they are short term in nature. The fair value of warrants issued for settlement and services are estimated based on the Black-Scholes model during the nine months ended September 30, 2022 and the year ended December 31, 2021. The carrying value of notes payable approximated the estimated fair values due to their recent issuances.

Fair Value on a Recurring Basis

The Company follows the guidance in ASC 820 for its financial assets and liabilities that are re-measured and reported at fair value at each reporting period, and non-financial assets and liabilities that are re-measured and reported at fair value at least annually. The estimated fair value of the money market account represents a Level 1 measurement. The estimated fair value of the warrant liabilities and Earnout Cash contingent consideration represent Level 3 measurements. The following table presents information about the Company’s assets and liabilities that are measured at fair value on a recurring basis at September 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, and indicates the fair value hierarchy of the valuation inputs the Company utilized to determine such fair value (in thousands):

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Warrant liabilities

The Company utilizes a Black-Scholes model approach to value the Placement Warrants at each reporting period, with changes in fair value recognized in the statement of operations. The Company uses a modified Black-Scholes model approach for the Substitute Warrants which applies a probability factor based on the probabilities of achievement of the Earnout Cash Milestone and/or Earnout Shares Milestone at each reporting period, with changes in fair value recognized in the statement of operations. The estimated fair value of the warrant liabilities is determined using Level 3 inputs. Inherent in a Black Scholes options pricing model are assumptions related to expected share-price volatility, expected life, risk-free interest rate and dividend yield. The Company estimates the volatility of its common stock based on historical and peer company volatility that matches the expected remaining life of the warrants. The risk-free interest rate is based on the U.S. Treasury zero-coupon yield curve on the grant date for a maturity similar to the expected remaining life of the warrants. The expected life of the warrants is assumed to be equivalent to their remaining contractual term. The dividend rate is based on the historical rate, which the Company anticipates to remain at zero.

The significant inputs used in the Black-Scholes model to measure the warrant liabilities that are categorized within Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy are as follows:

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A reconciliation of warrant liabilities is included below (in thousands):

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Earnout Cash liability

The fair value of the Earnout Cash liability has been estimated using probability-weighted discounted cash flow models (DCFs) with significant inputs that are not observable in the market and thus represents a Level 3 fair value measurement as defined in ASC 820. The most significant inputs include whether (a) if the Company files an NDA, that the FDA approves the Company’s NDA for ZYESAMI and/or NRX-101, (b) if such approval is granted, whether such approval will be received on or before December 31, 2022, and (c) if such approval is granted, whether ZYESAMI and/or NRX-101 will be listed in the FDA’s Orange Book on or before December 31, 2022. The DCFs incorporate Level 3 inputs including estimated discount rates that the Company believes market participants would consider relevant in pricing and the projected timing and amount of cash flows, which are estimated and developed, considering the uncertainties associated with the obligations. Because (i) ZYESAMI NIH Phase III trial was stopped due to futility, and (ii) NRX-101 Phase III trial has not yet started, management estimated the probability as of September 30, 2022 of achieving the required milestones for payment of the Earnout Cash to be de minimis and therefore, the September 30, 2022 Earnout Cash liability was reduced to zero.

A reconciliation of the Earnout Cash liability is included below (in thousands):

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